Why the real estate market will not come back: Part 1 - Jobs

The single most driver of home prices is if people have jobs and thus the unemployment rate is the best metric to monitor.  Please be aware that in the past few years due to the political elections the calculation of this unemployment rate is a optimistic view of unemployment based on people who are out of work.  Those who gave up are not counted in the statistic.  If you lost your job and pissed off would you want to talk to a US phone survey person? But in good faith to random sampling methods and all things being equal the current unemployment is about 8% and is improving to previous historical normals... Like a 13GB DJ Tiesto discography downloading at 0.5 KB/sec from a shotty Verizon 2G connection in Cutbank, Montana.

To achieve the historical 6% unemployment we need to lower the unemployment rate 2% which equates to 20 million jobs.  Assuming 100 epicenters of business (2 per state) you would need to create 200,000 jobs in your nearest city. Then let's define a practical timeline say 2 years... Then you would need to create 5-10 thousand jobs every single month to get there... In every city.... For two years straight.   A best case employment situation such as UPS in Memphis where it is probably one of the poster boys for post recession hiring and growth does not hire anywhere even a thousand jobs a month, month after month after month.  How we expect even to begin to hit a fraction of the 5-10 thousand NEW jobs every month.  And I think it safe to assume this kind of growth is not coming from the small business sector.

To think the unemployment rate will be anywhere near historical levels (without government data tweaking) is fundamentally flawed in their logic.